Lucia Adams, The Times

Lucia Adams of The Times says a research data-cruncher could save investors from expensive errors.

Whether it’s for pure investment or pure pleasure, most buyers want their overseas property purchase to be a canny move: unearthing that hidden enclave that will produce Jack and the Beanstalk house price growth, or finding a place where there is a steady stream of tenants and fat rental returns.
But the problem for any buyer venturing overseas is that understanding everything from the buying process to what is happening to prices and rents can be difficult. Legal and tax rules have caveat after caveat and buyers are faced with promises of wildly alluring rental returns and maddeningly varied accounts of house price growth. How do you know whether your overseas bolt hole will one day contribute to your pension or end up obliterating it? According to a poll of 700 overseas owners, which is due to be released on Monday, many overseas investors are finding the going for holiday lets tougher than expected. More than half the respondents in the Overseas Property Owners’ Survey have properties in Spain, a third in Florida, and the rest are spread between traditional destinations, such as France and Portugal, and less usual ones. One unifying factor is that most of them bought with holiday lets in mind, but as the graph below shows, almost a third of owners are unsatisfied with their level of bookings over the past year. About a third of respondents just broke even, about a third made a profit and the rest made a loss. Low occupancy levels may not be a big worry for those who see income from their holiday home as a bonus, but are disastrous for those who rely on the income to cover costs.

But help is at hand. The residential research team at Knight Frank are addressing some of the burning questions on investors’ minds. They have designed a matrix that takes account of key factors that affect a country’s prospects and attractiveness for the British buyer. Digesting data feeds from 700 information sources on everything from tourism trends, the economic outlook, political stability, market transparency and taxation, it chugs away keeping up to the minute with the latest hotspots in the overseas property market. Although the matrix is highly sophisticated — it was originally designed for the use of big financial institutions — Liam Bailey, of Knight Frank, feels that overseas buyers who want to profit from their investment would do well to learn from the model. He says: “Big investors are taking this incredibly seriously — ploughing quite a bit of money into research. If this is the amount of work these guys are doing to try to understand the market, think how much an individual purchaser needs to do. Those people who are going to make it work are those who are going to invest time into the research.”

A good place for buyers to start is to think carefully about their objectives. “If it is to make money from investment property, you’ve got what you might call business lets where you are looking to local employed people for renting; and then you’ve got the holiday-let scenario. Things differ in each country — how you let property and how you get into the market.” He says buyers should also consider the ease of getting in, and out, of foreign markets: “

How easy is it to get title to property, how easy is it to get rid of it? The key entry and exit point in the investment is fundamental to realise your gain,” he says. He advises buyers to keep doing their homework: “Look at the business pages. Take an interest in how countries perform. As places become successful, they become more wealthy and encourage job creation, which, if you buy a place that is going to let to local people, will benefit you directly. For the tourist market, keep an eye on where new airports are opening and which places are opening up.”

So, where does the Knight Frank matrix tip? Where can you find a stable political outlook with an economy that may be about to turn the corner? A place where rental returns are better than at home and where house prices are perceived to be undervalued and set to rise? Well, the answer is not some far-flung place no one has ever heard of. No. It’s Bavaria.

Knight Frank, 0113-297 1950, www.knightfrank.com; www.iposurvey.co.uk